Friday, March 4, 2011

MLB Preview, Key to success: Oakland Athletics

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

Oakland Athletics: Brett Anderson
In 2010, the A's were a .500 baseball team, but that was without their best pitcher for a third of the season. The 23 year old Anderson joined the team in 2009, and was brilliant, he posted a 4.06 era and struck out 150 batters in 175.1 innings. That was as a 21 year old too, which made the A's very excited to see what he could do in his sophomore season.

He was even better during his second season, posting a 2.80 era and a 1.19 whip. The only downside for Anderson, was he suffered two different elbow injuries that forced him to miss almost the entirety of May, June and July.

The A's have said the problem with Anderson is he throws his slider too much, which caused the injury. The slider is his best pitch, but he threw it more than 31% of the time last season. While he dominated opposing batters with it, the A's would rather he threw it less in order to pitch more innings.

The A's want to see him throw his change up more often, which he threw just 8.5% of the time last season. They hope that the less violent arm motion will preserve his arm. He is just 23 and the A's don't want to force him into an early injury like has been done to other young stars like Mark Prior or Stephen Strasburg.

Even though the Texas Rangers ran away with the AL West last season, that doesn't mean they are assured to repeat in 2011. They no longer have Cliff Lee who helped them down the stretch, they also are relying on some questionable pitchers of their own such as Brandon Webb. So why can't the A's make a run this year?

If they want to, it all starts at the top of their rotation with Anderson. He has shown that he has the stuff to dominate the league. He is a big strong power pitcher who is young and improving. If he stays healthy all season long, I would expect him to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Pitching will have to be the way the A's win this season. They have a very light hitting team, which may have Hideki Matsui as their biggest power hitter. I wouldn't be surprised if no one hit 20 home runs for the A's in 2011. Maybe someone steps up, but for them to win, they need to out pitch the rest of the weak AL West.

Others considered: Rich Harden: When healthy he is one of the best, but that is very rare. He is already hurt and won't start the season in the rotation. If he can get healthy and give the A's even a few starts, it would be a boost to their rotation...Entire lineup: As I mentioned, the A's have a bad lineup. They need someone to step up, but looking through I don't see anyone who looks primed for a big year. It could be Deric Barton, or maybe Josh Willingham, but someone needs to hit for them to win games.



Quick side note: I'm going to go one team at a time, but still put two up per day. This gives more space for each team, and easier for sort-ability.

MLB Preview, Key to success: Milwaukee Brewers

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

Milwaukee Brewers: Yovani Gallardo
The Brewers picked up Zack Greinke in the off-season to be the ace of their staff, but in reality they already had someone who has Ace abilities. That's Gallardo, who has had several seasons of very good pitching, and really hasn't had a bad year yet.

He's been in the league four years, but one of those years he only had 4 starts due to a torn ACL while covering first base on a ground ball. The 4 years he has pitched, have been not only dominant, but consistent, especially the last two seasons.

In those seasons he pitched 185.2 and 185 innings each, his era was 3.73 and 3.84, and he struck out 204 and 200 batters. Basically his two seasons were almost identical, which is one of the reasons he is so important this year.

Those numbers were as the Ace of the staff, except for a short time when CC Sabathia was on the team. A number one is a guy the team can lean on for a win every five days. Gallardo was close to that, but wasn't quite to the caliber of a guy like Greinke, but he still is just 25 years old.

Two factors lead me to believe this will be the year that Gallardo puts it all together and becomes a top level starter in the National League.

First is his age, he is coming into his prime, and is coming off of two seasons where he pitched a solid innings total, but wasn't overworked. His arm should be fresh, so combined with him being in the prime of his career, he should break out this season, and improve on already very good numbers.

The second reason is because the pressure will be off. He's the number two guy in town, which means that he will not only pitch against other teams two, but also won't be expected to carry the team. The Brewers brought in Greinke to be their go to guy, I imagine Gallardo wants that to be his role. He's out to prove he is the ace of the team, but won't have the pressure of having to win every single start.

Something very concerning about Gallardo is how he sometimes just doesn't have his stuff working and it leads to very bad starts. Last year he had six starts where he gave up 5 or more runs, including a stretch in August where he gave up 6+ runs in 3 straight starts.

An ace is the kind of guy who even when he doesn't have it, will still have a productive start. Last year Greinke struggled overall, but 2 years ago, he had just 2 starts all year where he gave up 5 or more runs. Gallardo improved last year in this aspect, but if he wants to make the jump to elite starting pitcher, he'll have to continue to lower his bad start numbers.

The Brewers have as good a shot as anyone to win the NL Central. With the loss of Wainwright, the St. Louis Cardinals are very beatable. The Cincinnati Reds are young, which could lead them to regress. If Gallardo steps up and gives the Brewers a top notch 1-2, they could be contending for the division title.

Others considered: Prince Fielder/Ryan Braun: There was talk before last season that these two could be the best combo in the middle of any lineup in the league. They had decent years, but neither one really played to their potential. The Brewers need these guys to be power hitters they once were in order to carry the lineup...Rickie Weeks: He is coming off an amazing season, but everyone knew he could hit, the question is, can he stay healthy all year long? If he can I expect another monster year from Weeks...Zack Greinke: I touched on it before, but he's coming off of a down year. The Brewers needs him to return to Cy Young form at the top of their rotation.

Quick side note: I'm going to go one team at a time, but still put two up per day. This gives more space for each team, and easier for sort-ability.

Previous keys to their teams: Diamondbacks and Orioles. Red Sox and Braves Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs  Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians  Colorado Rockies and Detroit Tigers  Florida Marlins and Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Thursday Pac-10 predictions: UCLA @ UW, OSU @ Arizona, Oregon @ ASU, USC @ WSU

Big night for the Pac10 tonight with the champion still to be determined. UCLA has a tough test heading to Washington, but can they handle it and keep their hopes alive? Arizona hosts an Oregon State team that beat them at home, maybe that gives them confidence for another win?

My picks:
Washington-86 UCLA-79
Oregon State-58 Arizona-82
ASU-71 Oregon-64
WSU-71 USC-67

Quick added note about the upset prediction in Seattle: While the Bruins come in hot, I think Hec Ed will be too much to handle for the Bruins. Josh Smith returns home and will be the target of the Dawg Pack, that should be a major factor in the game tonight. If he can find a way to put the jeers out of his mind, I expect a big game from him, which should keep it close, but still won't be enough for UCLA to win. They are talented, but Washington comes in desperate and mad, that's how they play best. Nothing would surprise me tonight though, a blow out by either team is possible, but a good close game would be helpful for each team as they prep for the post-season.

MLB Preview, Key to success: New York Yankees

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

New York Yankees: Phil Hughes
There is no way a hitter in this lineup is going to make or break the season, they are just too good top to bottom, their pitching on the other hand looks set to be in the bottom half of the American League. Hughes though will be a key to whether the Yankees rotation is able to give the team a chance this year.

He is listed as the number two starter in the rotation, after CC Sabathia, and before A.J. Burnett. While Sabathia is a legit ace atop the rotation, Burnett is coming off a 5.26 era season, and looks as if his age has caught up with him in a hurry. This is why Hughes is such an important player this season.

At just 24 years of age, Hughes is coming off his first full season as a starter, where his pitched decent, finishing with a 4.19 era in 176 innings. Those numbers are what a contender would look for out of their number 3 starter, but would be disappointed if their second best pitcher couldn't post a sub 4 era.

Hughes began last season very strong, posting a 3.65 era before the all-star break. That is what the Yankees expected from him all season long, but then he fell apart. His second half era was 4.90, which is a reason the Yankees stumbled down the stretch.

If Hughes can pitch an entire season like his first half of 2010, the Yankees would have a solid 1-2 punch. He's capable of doing that for stretches, but he may just be better suited for the bullpen.

The Yankees hitting is good enough on its own to help carry the team to a solid season, but they need some pitching help if they want to win a championship. They went after several starters in the off-season, but couldn't get any help from the outside. When a team has guys like Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre in their rotation, it isn't a good sign.

But what Hughes can do it make sure that the top two win enough games to take some pressure from the bottom 2 starters. If that happens, the Yankees should be alright during the regular season, but I still see no chance of them winning a World Series without pitching help. Which could happen, in the form of Francisco Liriano...

Others considered: Nova/Mitre/Burnett: No one knows what to expect from these three, they have some upside, but the Yankees need them to succeed if they want any sort of a good season...Alex Rodriguez: He has been trending downward the last few seasons, but a down year for A-Rod is still pretty good. Because of the pitching problems, A-Rod will need to have a strong year to carry the team on his back...Robinson Cano: Coming off his best year ever, what will he do as an encore? I am a believer in Cano, he should be able to put even better numbers up this season. The Yankees will need him to be an MVP candidate once again this season.

Just one team today, headed out to the Washington UCLA game in just a bit.

Previous keys to their teams: Diamondbacks and Orioles. Red Sox and Braves Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs  Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians  Colorado Rockies and Detroit Tigers  Florida Marlins and Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

MLB Preview, Key to success: Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Dodgers

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

Minnesota Twins: Francisco Liriano
Just a few years back, Liriano burst onto the scene for the Twins with some ridiculous numbers. In his first full season he struck out well over a batter an inning, had a WHIP of exactly 1, and his ERA was 2.16 over 121 innings. He was supposed to become one of the best in baseball, and supplant Johan Santana as the ace of the team.

Thats when his career took a turn for the worst after an elbow injury. He needed Tommy John surgery before the 2007 season, which forced him to miss the entire year. He started the 2009 season at the majors, but was awful, he was sent down after posting an 11.32 era in 3 starts. He dominated in the minors and came back up and pitched well in the end of the 2009 season.

Last season Liriano pitched well, but didn't dominate like he did when he first came into the league. He struck out over a batter per inning, but his ERA was 3.62 and his whip 1.26, good numbers but sabermetrics tell the whole story.

Liriano was the 8th best pitcher based on WAR. He was a 6 win player, just below Adam Wainwright, and ahead of stars such as Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia.

It is clear that Liriano has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but coming off the injury he has been wildly inconsistent. This season is his second full year at the Majors since the surgery and he should be one hundred percent, and pitching at his highest level. That is assuming that he can get back to his old form, something that may never happen.

The Twins have several innings eaters in their rotation, but no one who can win a game on his own, except for Liriano. He should be going out every 5 days and giving the twins a good shot to win the game. If he can do that, the Twins have a decent shot at winning the division.

Liriano has the upside of being the best pitcher in the division, last year he was second behind the Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander. While Verlander has a better history of being great, I see Liriano with more potential. These two could be difference makers in a wide open division race.

If Liriano can post numbers like last season, or better even, I think the Twins will be contending for the division. If he is hurt, or pitches poorly, the Twins have no show this year.

Others considered: Joe Mauer: He has had injury problems in the past, but when he is healthy he is the best hitting catcher in baseball. He is the key to this teams lineup which is evident by his 2009 MVP award...Justin Morneau: his balky back caused him to miss half of the 2010 season, and in previous years he's missed some time as well. When he is in the lineup he's a great asset, but I question his ability to come back and produce this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Kemp
This time last year Kemp was being talked up as a potential 40-40 guy and someone who could turn into of the best hitters in baseball. He couldn't have been the complete opposite...

He hit 28 home runs, which was a career high, but his average was a pitiful .249. He also stole only 19 bases, getting caught 15 times, he also struck out 30 times more than in 2009. His struggles were a big reason that the Dodgers weren't able to compete in the NL west. They were just 2 games under .500, but finished in 4th place in their division.

Kemp put on a lot of weight going into last year, which was supposed to add to his power. Instead it took away his speed, killed his contact and added just 2 home runs. Not the results he or the Dodgers were hoping for.

This season he comes in and needs to focus on hitting for a better average, and let his natural power get the ball out of the park. He has the skill set to be a high average player, which is evident in his .342 average over 98 games in 2007. His power numbers weren't great, but he was just 22 years old at the time.

As a 26 year old, and the likely 3 hitter, this is the year where Kemp needs to shine for the Dodgers. They lack any other true power hitter in their lineup, yet they have several very good bats. Andre Ethier is a potential for more power, but he's only hit more than 23 home runs one time in his career.

The Dodgers are a solid team as a whole, but unless they have some star power they won't be winning any titles this year. Kemp is that possible superstar, he just needs to figure it all out.

Rumors swirled that he wasn't working hard last year and that he didn't seem to care too much. I wonder if that was Manny Ramirez rubbing off on him. Manny could do it, Matt apparently could not. This season Kemp is the big dog on the team, and he is the difference between the Dodgers being a decent team, or them challenging for the NL West crown.

Others considered: Jonathan Broxton: He was supposed to be a sure-thing, lock down closer last year. But he had problems all year long and was removed from the closer role several times. He is back in as the closer, but the question remains if he can be a top level closer...Rafael Furcal: He's battled injuries for the majority of the last 4 years, but when he has played he has been one of the best lead-off men in baseball. He looks to be healthy, but he is getting older and the chances of him being on the DL seem high, if that happens the Dodgers may struggle...Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw: The two young pitchers could become one of the better 1-2 punches in baseball. While Kershaw has developed into a true ace, Billingsley has taken a step back, he needs to rebound this year to help anchor the staff.


Previous keys to their teams: Diamondbacks and Orioles. Red Sox and Braves Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs  Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians  Colorado Rockies and Detroit Tigers  Florida Marlins and Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

MLB Preview, Key to success: Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

Los Angeles Angels: Kendry Morales
A season ago he appeared well on his way to a second consecutive 30 home run, 100 rbi season. That was when one of the more bizzare sports moments ever happened. He hit a walk off home run against the Seattle Mariners in late May. He rounded the bases and when he got to home plate, he collapsed amidst a mob of teammates.

Morales broke his leg during the celebration, which sidelined him for the rest of the season. The Angels were already struggling at that point, but the loss of their best power hitter proved to be the nail in the coffin of their season.

With opening day a month away, there is a possibility Morales may not be ready, but Angels Manager Mike Scioscia is confident he will be ready to go. That may mean as the designated hitter, but his bat in the lineup is very important to the success of the team.

The Angels lack proven veteran hitters, and even if Morales only has one full season, the other veterans in the lineup are all well past their primes. Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Vernon Wells have had success at different times in their careers, but they are all over 32 years old.  Wells is coming off of a career year, but that was preceded by three years that he played very poorly. Abreu and Hunter are power speed guys who have lost a lot of both their power and speed, which takes away from their value in the middle of the lineup.

That leave Morales to be the teams big bat, something he is perfectly capable of doing. The Angels let Mark Teixiera leave for the New York Yankees in the belief that Morales would be able to be just as good. He has not disappointed, and I think the future is bright for the 27 year old.

He has really no downside as a hitter, his average is very good, he doesn't strike out much, and he has a decent eye as well. His health shouldn't be judged by last season, the injury was a freak thing that I doubt happens again. Maybe he is injury-prone, but it is too soon to make a judgement on that.

The key to Morales is whether he is able to get his timing back and be an anchor in their lineup. I expect that to happen, but it may take a month or so before he fully finds his stride again. Once he does so, expect him to become one of the premier hitters in the game, not just for power, but also his high average and on base percentages.

Others considered: Fernando Rodney: Last season he was dominant at times in the set-up role, but other times he struggled. He has the closer role as of now, but if he isn't able to keep the ball in the strike zone the Angels may be forced to replace him...Dan Haren: Which Haren will they get, the one they had last season who was dominant, or the one who started the year poorly for the Arizona Diamondbacks? He could be a second ace for the team, but there is the downside there that he is unable to pitch to his potential like the first half of 2010.

Houston Astros: J.A. Happ
Last season the Astros decided they were going to plan for the future. That involved dealing Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies, Happ was the top player the Astros got back. He stepped in quickly for the Astros by starting 13 games with a 3.75 ERA in 72 innings.

He went back and forth between reliever and starter for the Phillies, but he appears to be locked into the starting rotation in Houston. Happ is listed as the number 3 starter behind Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, two guys who have had some consistency problems in the past, but are a solid head of the rotation.

Happ is an important player for the Astros because while he doesn't have a lot of Major League experience, he is 28 years old, which is usually around when a pitcher hits his prime. His career has been an odd one, but considering he has pitched just 289 major league innings over four years of professional baseball, he should be set to put together a full season.

That could also be a down-side to Happ. The Astros would like to get 180+ innings from him, but he doesn't have the history of being able to do that. He has always had a good ERA, low walk totals, and low strike out totals. Those things should help him achieve a high inning season, but he could very easily hit a wall in the second half of the year.

The division is wide open at this point, especially because of the injury to Adam Wainwright. While the Cincinnati Reds may be the favorite, they have question marks in their rotation. I think Happ could be the determining factor in the Astros having the best 1-2-3 in the NL Central.

Their one-two punch is pretty mediocre, especially compared to the other teams in the division. But the other number 3 starters in the Central are Bronson Arroyo, Shaun Marcum, Jake Westbrook, Carlos Zambrano, and Kevin Correia. I would put my trust in Happ before any of those five, but that's assuming he can remain healthy.

The Astros don't have the hitting to compete just yet, but Happ will help them be competitive this season and possibly into the future. He has the stuff to be a number 2 starter at some point down the road. This season he needs to build his innings tolerance and be reliable for the entirety of the season. If he can do that, and pitch to his potential, he could be a key player down the road as the Astros try to rebuild with young talent.

Others considered: Hunter Pence: I love this guy, he's going to hit about 25 home runs, steal about 15 bases, and hit about .280. Write it down and just watch him do it every year. I see him improving some this season, but a steady bat like his is very important to a young soft hitting team...Carlos Lee: El Caballo is on his last legs, last season was his first since 2004 without 100 rbi's, which is amazing. But he is a big guy and is 34 years old, he may have some left in the tank, but this year he needs to prove that.


Previous keys to their teams: Diamondbacks and Orioles. Red Sox and Braves Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs  Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians  Colorado Rockies and Detroit Tigers  Florida Marlins and Kansas City Royals

Top Sports Memory: Number 1: 2005 Seattle Seahawks, NFC champions

If you have anything you want to add to my memory feel free to comment, if you want give me your top 5, I expect everyone's to be different. 
Honorable Mentions: David Tyree's Catch...Kevin Dyson comes up 1 yard short...Giants commit 11 False Starts...IMA Game of the Century
Number 5: 2001 Huskies beat the Canes in explosive Husky Stadium
Number 4: Antonio Freeman did WHAT?1?
Number 3: The BeastQuake in Seattle
Number 2: '95 Mariners; the Double

Number 1

2005 Seahawks; NFC Champions:
This isn't just one game...it is the entire season. A season so amazing that it makes the list twice when you throw in the Giants game in my honorable mentions. That Seahakws team is one that I will remember forever, they weren't flashy, they weren't the best team to ever play, but man were they a great football team.

Mike Holmgren had the offensive philosophy that he would run a play, you would know it was coming, but you wouldn't stop it. That play was Shaun Alexander running over the Left Tackle behind Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson. Alexander wasn't a back that made you say wow, he wasn't going to break many tackles, but he was going to find the holes and get to the end zone or first down, ever single time.

As a matter of fact, the Hawks converted every single 3rd and 1 play that season. My guess is that they ran the ball on 95 percent of those plays as well, but they couldn't be stopped.

I went to every single game that season, saw them dominate opponents at home and going 8-0 in Qwest. The Hawks started a measly 2-2 including an overtime loss in Washington. But they followed that up by winning their next 11 games. Their only loss was a meaningless game against the Packers that they probably could have won, but lost 23-17.

Alexander broke the NFL record for touch downs in a season that year, he scored 28 of them...a record that was broken not long after by LaDainam Tomlinson. 

The reason I put this number one on my list is because of all of my memories this is the one that is about a team that achieved just about everything they could have achieved. They fell short in the Super Bowl, which I will get to, but they ROLLED through the regular season, and the playoffs was even more of a breeze. They wont their playoff games by scores of 20-10 and 34-14...both games I was at.

I have heard from some people that the Hawks in 05 weren't that good of a team, they point to a down year in the NFL as the only reason the Hawks won 13 games and an NFC Championship. I will defend this team to my grave, they were good, very good, and to be honest they were hands down the best team in the league that season.

Their offense was methodical, they took their time driving down the field with Alexander, but they also had Hasslebeck under center who could make just about any throw needed. Their top 3 receivers, Darrell Jackson, Bobby Engram and Joe Jurevicius were not guys who were well known around the league, but they were somewhat reliable and made the big catches at the right times. The same could not be said for Stone Hands Jerramy Stevens, who I will never forgive for his drops.

The Hawks also had a good enough Defense to make sure games weren't shoot-outs. They weren't going to be record setters by any means, but they were a solid bunch that made plays when they needed to and gave the offense chances to win games.

Now on to the Super Bowl...I am torn on how to describe my feelings on this one...I don't want to blame the refs, and I won't...at least not in full, but because the head referee from the game Bill Leavy said he "Kicked two calls in the fourth quarter and impacted the game", I think I have to point out that the Hawks got the short end of the stick...

The Super Bowl was one that no one outside of Seattle or Pittsburgh probably cared much about, the Hawks play in South Alaska and the Steelers are a team not many people seem to like...Going into the game I thought the Hawks had a legit shot to beat the Steelers, and they did, but as Holmgren said, they couldn't beat the refs too...Here is a great video explaining the calls that were questionable at best:


The video shows the pass interference that was ticky tack. I think it is an OK call, but really how many times does something like that happen in an NFL game? There is more contact than that on almost every single pass...heck take a look at this video for comparison to another play in the game that drew no flags..even if it isn't PI, it's at least illegal contact of some sort...

The next call that comes to mind, that isn't in the video is the ILLEGAL BLOCK called on Hasslebeck while he made a tackle...wait what? Yes, it is true and makes no sense at all. Hasslebeck dove at the knees to make a tackle, and made the tackle, but somehow had an illegal block called on him. Anyone who can explain that one to me, be my guest!

The Touchdown for Big Ben is iffy..I still don't think he got in, but there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the call. The problem I do have with the call is that the line judge didn't signal TD until Ben put the ball over the line while laying on the turf clearly down. If he got in it was during the dive, but NOT when he was laying on the ground...One pretty big kicker on this one...it was a THIRD Down play. The Steelers would've had to kick a field goal.

The holding call is mentioned in the video above, but what isn't said is that it is holding and offsides, therefor the penalties would offset and the pass to the 2 wouldn't count anyways. But it would have given the Hawks a better opportunity because they wouldn't have lost 10 yards. Although I think the holding flag wouldn't have been thrown had the offsides flag been thrown instead...but I really can't say.

That is my rant on the bad calls, but the Hawks still had their chances and lost the game. They didn't play well, didn't execute and it killed them. However this is supposed to be a good memory right? Which it is...This team was fun to watch, and they were the closest to a champion that I have ever seen in Seattle. I will remember this season for as long as I live, because it brought success to the city of Seattle, and even ended with plenty of controversy.