MLB Preview, Key to success: Florida Marlins and Kansas City Royals

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

Kansas City Royals: Mike Jirschele

I'm guessing most people don't have a clue who this guy is, if you do, props to you. He is the manager of the Omaha Storm Chasers, the AAA affiliate of the Royals. So maybe he isn't a player, and he isn't technically on the Royals, but that doesn't mean he isn't the most important person in their organization right now.

The Royals are bad, and looking through their major league roster, I don't see a whole lot of upside. The best player on their team is Billy Butler, who appears to be nothing more than a solid average, medium power guy. From a DH/1B, that is not anything special, it's towards the bottom of the league at the position.

Jirchele is important because the Royals farm system is loaded with some of the best prospects in baseball. Using Baseball Americas recent top 100, the Royals have nine in the top hundred, including five of the top 20 and three in the top 10. No other team seems to match up with the prospect power the Royals have.

Their top 5 include 1b Eric Hosner, 3b Mike Moustakas, OF/C Will Myers, LHP John Lamb, and LHP Mike Montgomery. Having prospects that are highly touted is great, but most prospects seem to be more hype than actual production.

There hasn't been much to talk about with the Royals the last few years. They have had some decent prospects before, but they never make much noise. Maybe the lower systems are to blame, or maybe it is their Major League office messing things up. 

Jirchele has been around for quite some time as the AAA manager, so maybe he is not doing a very good job. It is difficult to tell whether they have had prospects who just weren't ever going to be good, or if they never had a chance to develop. This year it looks as if they have legitimate prospects, so it will be a good season to judge if the Royals should continue to rely on Jirchele. 

This is why the minor league system is so important for the Royals. If they can help in the growth of their prospects, they could be competing in the next 3-5 seasons. They have been bad for a long time, but this could be their chance to make a push to be relevant again. Look at what the Tampa Bay Rays have done the last few years, they built their team from the inside and became a contender, and almost won a World Series.

The Royals need to try to do the same, but they must remain patient and smart. If they get greedy and bring guys up before they're ready it could be kill their maturation process. Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Royals contending won't happen in a day either.

Others considered: The Royals scouting director, their player management guys, their GM: These guys all have an impact on what is done with their young talent, but I think the AAA manager, and the AA manager will be most important...Billy Butler: He is the only guy on the team I see with a real bright future, he has had some success, but may turn out to be nothing more than an average hitter with average power.

Florida Marlins: Michael Stanton

As an 18 year old, Stanton hit 39 home runs in 125 A ball games, the following season he split between AA and high A, settling for just 28 home runs in 129 games. Then last season he started the year off in AA, where he hit 21 home runs in just 53 games, which led all of professional baseball at the time.

The Marlins decided enough was enough, and they called the 20 year old up to the majors. He proceeded to hit 22 home runs in just 100 games. If he kept that pace for 162 games, he would have finished the year with 35 home runs. For a 20 year old to have numbers like that is insane, but it was not a fluke.

He is a physical freak, at 6-5, 233 pounds, Stanton's power is legit and could only get better. He struggled to with contact in his first year, hitting just .259 with 123 strike outs (199.3 per 162 games). That is to be expected though for someone as young as Stanton.

This season he will be starting in right field for the Marlins and will likely end up hitting 3rd or 4th. That could be a lot of pressure for the young kid, but he hasn't struggled at any point in his career, so why would this year be any different? 

With Hanley Ramirez in the lineup, Stanton will see good pitches, also he will have guys on base very frequently. The Marlins have several young contact hitters that will be atop their lineup which will be very good for Stanton. Gaby Sanchez is another guy who could help Stanton; he is older than Stanton, but has very few games played at the Major League level. He should hit for some power, which would let Stanton see more pitches.

While he is still young, this year is important for Stanton because it will be his first full year in the majors. Pitchers will have a better idea how to pitch to him this time around. He hasn't seen very many pitchers more than once in his career, so that could catch up with him. If he is able to make adjustments and keep his power numbers up, he could quickly turn into one of the better power bats in the league.

Also his average is a question mark that he needs to answer. He could go two ways, either into an Adam Dunn clone, hitting 40 hrs with a .250 avg, or a legit power hitter like Barry Bonds.

Others considered: The Marlins entire rotation has some proving to do. They are a relatively young bunch, but all have seen some sort of success. Most notably is Josh Johnson who started the 2010 season on fire, but cooled off to end the year. Also Ricky Nolasco was the opposite, he started awful, but closed the season on a high note. Their lineup is also young with upside, it will be interesting to see how they develop as a team, I wouldn't be surprised to see them contend as soon as this season.

Previous keys to their teams: Diamondbacks and Orioles. Red Sox and Braves Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs  Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians  Colorado Rockies and Detroit Tigers

 

Sunday Six: the week in review

Another week in the books, more sports to be discussed. This week there were some repeating stories, but also one story that shook up the entire make-up of the National League.

1. Adam Wainwright to have season ending Tommy John Surgery:
My full story here; but since that time the rumors that have swirled have been all over the place. The most important may be the discussion that the Cardinals may be forced to trade Albert Pujols. I want to put an end to that, because I think there is no way on earth the Cardinals could do such a thing.

Pujols is the best player in baseball and in my opinion, the most dominant in all of sports. Trading him would be the worst PR move the Cardinals could ever make, even if they know they had no chance to re-sign him, and were able to get a great package for him, it still would be an awful move. He is the face of the team, fans love him, and the money he brings in likely out-weighs his cost.

Back to Wainwright and what it means... His absence makes the Cardinals rotation go from one of the best in the NL to probably the second worst in their own division. There aren't any pitchers worth going after in the free agent market, trading for one also would be tough, so they are left with what they have. Someone may step up and pitch out of their mind, but replacing Wainwright is going to be impossible.

2. Arizona is falling apart, giving hope to UCLA and Washington:
A week ago, the Arizona Wildcats had beaten the Washington Huskies, which gave them a firm hold on the Pac-10 championship. With 4 games remaining they had a solid lead, all they had to do was win a few more games and they were golden.

That's when they headed to Los Angeles to play USC and UCLA. They dropped both games, including a 22 point loss yesterday to the second place UCLA Bruins. With the losses, they have fallen into a tie with UCLA, and are just a game and a half ahead of Washington.

Lucky for Arizona, they have the easiest schedule left of the three teams. They face Oregon State and Oregon this week, both games at home, where they haven't lost this season. They did lose to Oregon State on the road earlier this season, but that was a one point game, and was their second conference game of the year. If they win both games, they will clinch at least share of the title.

The UCLA Bruins have a tough week ahead of them as they head to Washington for their two final games. First, this Thursday they play Washington, which is going to be a huge test. Both teams are fighting for not only the conference title, but an easier first round game in the conference tournament. If UCLA wins both games, they will share the title, no need for any help by the Oregon schools. Saturday they head to Pullman to face the Cougars, which will be a test as well. The Cougars will be trying to play spoilers, plus they play well most of the time at home, that game is anyones.

The Washington Huskies have three games left, all at home, but all against good basketball teams. Even if they do win all three games, they could end up in second place in the Pac10, which they will take, but it isn't a championship. The Huskies are a team that can come out and beat anyone on any night, but if they aren't hitting their shots, they will lose. At home, they win, end of story, but this week will not be easy for the Huskies.

Any of the three could end up on top, but in the end I expect all to be in the NCAA tournament, and also surprise the nation. March can't come soon enough.

3. NFL Draft preview/Combine:
I plan to write a more complete story this week about the NFL draft and talking about the combine. But it has been a major part of the last week, and I couldn't leave it out.

The whole process seems weird to me, it is like parading around show-dogs and teams pick the winners. Measurables in my opinion are very overrated. I think watching a kid play football and seeing their game-film is the most important thing. Even though GM's don't go only on how fast or strong someone is, I think the overall process is too much pomp and circumstance.

4. The NBA trade deadline:
As I have said, the NBA is not my thing, it is drawn out, and overall just seems boring. Nonetheless, the trade deadline came and went, and there were plenty of moves that happened, some were a long-time coming and others were out of left field.

The first, and most notable trade was Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups going to the New York Knicks. Obviously, there was more to it, but Carmelo has been on the outs in Denver for quite some time. It was inevitable that he would be moved, and then he finally was. He has played good for the Knicks so far, the question of how Amare Stoudemire would react has been asked. So far so good, but both guys want to score, and at some point that may become an issue.

The Boston Celtics upset their fans when they sent away Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson in return for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic plus some draft picks as well. The trade does not appear to make them better at this point, but the fans are just wondering why they made the deal. It looked like they would be able to stand pat and be good enough to make a run again in the playoffs. The Celtics didn't think so, but it may be a while before we know if they made a good move.

NBA trades are mostly just moving money and salaries around, so in the end judging these trades is impossible to do without looking deeper into the numbers. That is something I won't do, because I dislike the NBA, but thats probably already clear.

5. Who's number one?
Last week the tops teams in NCAA basketball all seemed to fall. In fact the top 4 all did lose, which gave Duke the free pass to the number one ranking. They did not make the most of that opportunity by losing last night to Virginia Tech. It was a close game, but at this point, that loss is going to drop them a few spots indefinably, but who will be number one?

My bet is on Ohio State, who won both of their games last week. But so did Kansas, so it could be either one. They will be number 1 and 2, but based on the voters selections last week, I assume Kansas will not leap-frog the Buckeyes.

After those two, it is again cloudy. the next 3 teams all lost this week, Pittsburgh, Texas and San Diego State had opportunities to move into the top 3, but they weren't able to win twice last week.

BYU, the 7th ranked team may move all the way up to number 3 in the nation. Thanks to Jimmer Freddette, they went into San Diego State and won in convincing fashion. Duke could hold on to their top 3 ranking, but I think BYU deserves to be ahead of them after winning a huge conference game, on the road, against the 6th ranked team in the nation.

6. NFL Labor Dispute:
I wrote an earlier story here, and really not all that much has changed. But what has happened is the deadline has come closer, when it comes, something must happen. That deadline is Thursday at 11:59 P.M., which is when the CBA expires, but it could be moved by the owners if they decide to give the players more time.

If it comes and goes with no agreement, the players will be locked out. I think the deadline will be extended and eventually a deal will be worked out. It would be a major loss for both the players and owners to take a season off. Both sides know this, but one has to budge.

I think the players will be the ones needing to budge to make the deal work. They need the years salary more than the owners do, they also have a shelf life before they will be retiring, meaning they need to make the money now. I am on the players side of things, but the owners hold more cards than the players do, and usually the one with the better cards ends up on top.

My hope as a fan is that we see football next Fall, a year without NFL games would be a tough pill to swallow.

Top Sports Memory: Number 2

If you have anything you want to add to my memory feel free to comment, if you want give me your top 5, I expect everyone's to be different. 

Honorable Mentions: David Tyree's Catch...Kevin Dyson comes up 1 yard short...Giants commit 11 False Starts...IMA Game of the Century

Number 5: 2001 Huskies beat the Canes in explosive Husky Stadium

Number 4: Antonio Freeman did WHAT?1?

Number 3: The BeastQuake in Seattle

Number 2

1995 Seattle Mariners: The Double:

I have said before that I can't say a single bad thing about the 95 Mariners, but I have thought of something I would change...well two if you include them being world champions. But I with I were older during the 95 season so that I would be able to remember the magic even better. But maybe because I was so young it helped form my love of sports...Either way it was a magical season and the double was just icing on the cake: The Double, courtesy of MLB.com

Whenever I watch that play or hear the call I get the chills! My memory I have of watching the game may not even be a real memory, it doesn't quite fit logically, but it is still entrenched in my mind nonetheless...I remember sitting on the floor in front of the TV with just my dad and mom watching along with me. I was nervous as all get-out. Then when it happened I remember just being giddy with joy and jumping up and down.

The Mariners were going to the ALCS! My memory of it just makes me smile, but here is why I am not so sure it makes any sense...In my memory I am in the second house I ever lived in, but in 95 I don't think I lived there yet. Maybe I did, but I am pretty sure I moved there later. Either way I am going to take this and call it a top memory.

I don't remember any of the season, not that the M's were way out of it in late August, but I do remember the "refuse to lose" slogan that swept the area. It was so cool to me that the Mariners just weren't going to lose. And they didn't...well until the ALCS, but the magic had already been made. Even better to me was that I hate the Yankees, probably more than any other team in any sport, and the double crushed their hopes of winning the World Series.

One thing I know I remember is this picture in the newspaper the next day, it still is one of the best pictures I have ever seen...

As I continue through Thiel's book on how that team saved baseball The Double becomes even more important in my sports memory bank. If the M's don't come back to force a playoff, if the Mariners don't beat the Angels in the 1 game playoff, If Edgar doesn't hit that double, If Junior doesn't make it around to score...Chances are there isn't baseball in Seattle...but all of those things did happen, and while I think the Mariners organization has its problems...having baseball in Seattle is something I will never take for granted.

MLB Preview, Key to success: Detroit Tigers and Colorado Rockies

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki

Ever since he came into the league in 2007, the talk has been that Tullowitzki could be one of the best short stops in the game, but he has been unable to stay healthy long enough for that to happen. He has played two seasons where he missed very little time, but his other two he missed over 100 games combined. 

Last year Tullowitzki missed substantial time, but still put his name out there as one of the best players in all of baseball. That was in large part to his September to remember, where he had a stretch of 15 games where he hit 14 home runs. When he got hot, no one knew when he was going to stop, he just kept launching the ball out of the park, and was doing everything he could to try to get the Rockies into the playoffs. 

They lost just 2 of those 15 games, but after those 15 games, Tullowitzki did not homer again, and the Rockies won just one out of their next 14 games. They couldn't do anything when Tullowitzki wasn't carrying them. The one game they did win, Tullowitzki was 4/5 with a home run and 5 rbis. He needed some help, but there was none to be found.

If he were a healthy guy who you knew would play 160 games every season, he would be considered the best SS in baseball, but he isn't, which makes his season the key to the Rockies. Other than Tullowitzki there is no one in their lineup that will scare opposing pitchers. Maybe Carlos Gonzalez, but he has only had really one good season. If Tullowitzki is absent the Rockies offense is going to look anemic.

It isn't just injuries that take Tullowitzki out of the lineup, he also is a straight up streaky hitter. September is a good example of this, but he also has months where he just doesn't hit. Last April he had just one home run, but did hit .304 for the Rockies so he was forgiven. The best players in baseball don't have single home run months, he needs to be consistent and carry the Rockies for the entirety of the season.

Others considered: Carlos Gonzalez: He is coming off an amazing year where he did everything for the Rockies, but I have doubts another season like that is on its' way...Ubaldo Jimenez: Like Gonzalez he had a great year, especially the first half of the season, but then he tailed off; what Ubaldo will we get? The dominant one, or the mediocre one? The Rockies will need him to be a force atop their rotation to compete with the rest of the pitching heavy National League. 

Detroit Tigers: Max Scherzer
Last season he got off to an awful start to the year, his ERA in April was 4.23 and then in May it was 9.45. He was pretty much left for dead, but after that he was straight up filthy. His ERA after the All-Star break was 2.47, which included a 1.29 ERA in August. The inconsistency is nothing new to Scherzer, as he had similar ups and downs in 2009, but his finish to 2010 makes him a prime candidate to break out.

He is just 26 years old, has one blue eye, one brown eye, and is a strike out machine. In 195.2 innings he had 184 strike outs, good for an 8.46 K/9. That ratio is up there with some of the best in the league, but the question is, can he put together an entire season?

He seems to be up for the task this season after he really only had 2 bad months in 2010. When the Tigers were making their push for the division they road his arm down the stretch. He had seven consecutive starts going from late July to September first, in which he gave up no more than 2 earned runs, in all of those games he pitched 6+ innings, and actually all of those games, but one he gave up two or no runs. That is the kind of dominance the Tigers should expect for stretches in 2011.

But what about the none-dominating stretches? Will those be 9+ era months? Or just a bad start here or there? Maybe he will be able to put it together and not have a rough patch. If he can find a way to make the rough patches not as rough, keep the Tigers in every ball-game he pitches in; He could step up as a dominant number 2 starter behind Justin Verlander.

This season is a big one for the Tigers, the division is wide open, they have a good lineup led by perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera, and newcomer Victor Martinez. They just need to find consistency from the young arm of Max Scherzer if they expect to win the division.

Others considered: Miguel Cabrera: He is going to be up there for the AL MVP, but we know what to expect so I don't see that as a key to their team...Victor Martinez: He is the new guy on the block, but like Cabrera he has a proven track record, the question will be, how will he respond to a pretty big ballpark...Rick Porcello: He is another young arm that needs to step up, he could be a legit number 3 in the rotation, but will have to pitch better than he has recently.


Previous keys to their teams: Diamondbacks and Orioles. Red Sox and Braves Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs  Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians

MLB Preview, Key to success: Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians

My complete preview for the MLB season is here, today I will continue my team by team analysis of the player that is the most important to watch in the upcoming season. This isn't necessarily the best player, rather someone who's season is important for the team, or their growth as a player.

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto

He may be the reigning NL MVP, but that doesn't assure he will have another year as good as 2010. That is one of the reasons I think his play is so important to not only the Reds, but himself as well. 

Votto was a very good hitter in his first two seasons, but last year was head and shoulders ahead of his first two. He made a run at the triple crown, and pretty much put the team on his back and carried them to the playoffs. That was after not even being voted to the NL all star team.

Things will change this season for the 27 year old Canadian, he is a known commodity and will likely be pitched around throughout the season. The question is, will he be able to put any hoopla behind him and just play baseball?

I think he will be able to do so, but not to the level of last season. He will be a top 5 hitter in the NL and he will win plenty of games for the Reds, but triple crown threatening seasons don't happen very often. For Votto, another .300, 30 hr, 100 rbi year is on its' way, but not a whole lot more, but if thats the case the Reds will need all of it.

Votto is in the middle of a good lineup that has plenty of power, he is different though because he adds a good average as well. Having a player of his caliber hitting 3rd or 4th makes their lineup go from mediocre to very good, and the upside of being great. 

Votto's abilities are only matched by one man, Albert Pujols...the best player in baseball. Some may argue that Votto is better right now, I'll disagree with that, but he is no doubt the difference between the Reds being a contender and them being a .500 baseball team. That though assumes he can have another MVP Caliber season, which I think he will be close to, but just short of.

Others Considered: Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are two young guys that the Reds have seen do great things. Last season each of them played full seasons and had great numbers, the two of them join an already young strong lineup that is becoming one of the best in baseball...Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez: The two young starters have shown flashes of dominance at times, but then other times have looked awful. Both have control problems, but if they are able to find the strike zone consistently they will be a dominant one two for years to come.

Cleveland Indians: Grady Sizemore
Just 2 seasons ago Sizemore was coming off a 33 homer, 38 steal season, and was primed to go after the elusive 40-40 mark. His effort never got going and it was a short-lived season for him, playing in only 106 games and hitting just 18 home runs and stealing 13 bases. He followed that up with a 33 game season in 2010 and has pretty much been left for dead.

Sizemore is only 28 years, but had micro-fracture knee surgery which may delay his return to the lineup. His doctors do expect him to be ready to start the year, but being a base-stealer he will need to be near 100 percent if he wants to be valuable.

The Indians are not likely to compete for a playoff spot this season, but if they can figure out what they have in Sizemore going forward. He could easily be a player who finds his health and gets back to his power-speed combo, but there is just as good a chance he never recovers and has no future with the Indians.

Sizemore's season is important to the Indians because he could very well be a key to them turning things around in the wide open AL Central. No team in their division is a power house, meaning if the Indians can have guys like Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta develop quickly, add in Shin-Soo Choo and their lineup could be one of the best in the division.

For that to happen though, Sizemore needs to become the player he once was, and that has to happen this year or he is likely not going to be given another chance. The Indians are a bad team, but they do have some young talent that would benefit from seeing a guy like Sizemore be successful.

Others considered: Carlos Santana is coming off a major knee injury that halted his rookie year, if he can get back to where he was last year, he would be one of the best hitting catchers in the game...Matt LaPorta  was disappointing for the Indians last year, but the highly touted first basemen needs to rebound this year and be a big bat in the middle of a bad lineup.

Previous keys to their teams: Diamondbacks and Orioles. Red Sox and Braves Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs

Top Sports Memory: Number 3: Marshawn Lynch sets off a BeastQuake

If you have anything you want to add to my memory feel free to comment, if you want give me your top 5, I expect everyone's to be different. 

Honorable Mentions: David Tyree's Catch...Kevin Dyson comes up 1 yard short...Giants commit 11 False Starts...IMA Game of the Century

Number 5: 2001 Huskies beat the Canes in explosive Husky Stadium

Number 4: Antonio Freeman did WHAT?1?

Number 3

January 8, 2011: The BeastQuake: Seattle Seahawks Vs. New Orleans Saints

First let me give some background on this one...I have had season tickets to the Seahawks for about 15 years. I hadn't missed a home game in Qwest field until the 2009 season. I had been to every single home Seahawks playoff game during my lifetime. Yet I was NOT at this game.

I can't begin to explain my devastation for missing it. I had a work day for my house I couldn't miss...worst decision EVER! If I were at the game it would be number one almost indefinitely. But instead I was at home watching the game, but it still was the most amazing run I have ever seen.

I'm sure by now you've seen this video once or twice, or if your me about 150 times. I can't get enough of it! Going into the game against the Saints I thought the Hawks would win it. It just seemed meant to be, they were huge underdogs, but playing at home and having Matt Hasslebeck seemed like a recipe for a win. Even after the awful start to the game I thought they were in great shape...Down 10-0 to the defending champs seemed tough, but I liked what I saw...and man was I right!

That play was the epitome of Marshawn Lynch...He is just a guy who isn't going to be taken down lightly, he is a BEAST of a runner. I remember the Giants game when he had a 7 yard run that should have been nothing but he just kept fighting and fighting to get 7 yards even though the Hawks were out of it. This run was very similar, had he been taken down after 10 yards it would have been a great run.

I was on my feet jumping and screaming and he just kept going. Most 67 yard runs are a break away play and take no time, this was probably the slowest run of that length ever, not because the Beast is slow, but he was following his blockers...that run was just flippin nuts!

I don't know how else to explain it! It made an earthquake for goodness sakes! It's too bad the Hawks lost in Chicago, but I know for a fact 10 years from now we will be seeing this play on Sportscenters top 10 NFL plays ever! And if not...we can always watch these fun renditions of the BeastQuake.

Adam Wainwright out...What does that mean for the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL?

The Cardinals are my pre-season favorite to win the World Series, but that was before the news broke that Adam Wainwright could miss some substantial time this year, maybe the entire season. News came out of the Cardinals camp that he suffered a significant injury to his throwing elbow during a bullpen session on Monday.

Last year Wainwright was second in the NL Cy Young race behind Roy Halladay, but his season was one of the better seasons in recent memory. He pitched 230.1 innings, has a 2.42 ERA, a 1.05 whip, struck out 213 batters and finished with 20 wins on the season. He ranked 4th among National League starters with his 6.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR)  in 2010. (War is a sabermetric stat that determines how many wins a player is worth in comparison to someone who could be found to replace them)...Plain and simple he was filthy.

All of that was great, but the Cardinals still missed the playoffs by 5 games. Take him out of the rotation and it could be bad news for the Red-Birds.

Assuming the injury is as bad as suspected and he needs Tommy John Surgery, the Cardinals will need to seek out another arm for their already injury riddled rotation.

Chris Carpenter is a bona fide ace who can be the number one for the Cardinals, but he has a history of injuries that could be the final blow to the Cardinals at any point mid-season. Carpenter missed almost the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons with injuries, but has since found his way and dominated opposing batters to the tune of a 3.22 era in 235 innings in 2010, and a 2.24 era in 192.2 innings in 2009.

Jaime Garcia will have to step into the number 2 spot, which he clearly has the skills for, but he is young and coming off an injury of his own. Garcia's career was delayed due to Tommy John surgery forcing him to miss almost 2 year, but he bounced back in his rookie 2010 season. He pitched just 163.1 innings after being shut down in September, but had an amazing 2.70 ERA on the year. If he has a year similar to last season he would be a great number 2, but after him it would be a major drop off.

St. Louis' depth chart currently lists Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse as the final two starters in the Cardinal's rotation.

Westbrook was an innings eater last season, finishing with 202.2 innings and a decent 4.22 ERA, if he can repeat that, the Cardinals would be alright with him as their number 3, but anything worse would be lethal to their playoff hopes. The bad news on Westbrook is that he has been very inconsistent in his career, so no one knows what to expect.

Lohse is a different story, he pitched just 92 innings last year and had a 6.55 ERA. That cannot happen again if he wants to be of any help for the Cardinals. However, just 2 seasons ago he put together a very good season in his first year as a Cardinals he pitched 200.0 innings and had a 3.78 ERA. If he has a season like that, the Cardinals will certainly be able to stay afloat in the NL Central, but that season looks like an anomaly for Lohse.

So that's four starters down, but still one more spot needs to be filled, which could be done from the inside or the outside of the organization, both options seem viable.

The top two free agents right now are Jeremy Bonderman and Kevin Millwood, both who have had success at times, but haven't been able to stick on any one team. If a good deal can be made to sign one of the two of them, that would probably be the Cardinals best option.

If the Cardinals decide to stay in their organization for a fifth starter, there are a few options, none of which seem very good...Miguel Batista, P.J. Walters, Lance Lynn, Ian Snell and Brian Augenstein seem most likely...Of those, the only names I recognize from previous time in the Major's are Snell and Batista, both former Seattle Mariners, and neither one very good.

Really whoever fills in as the fifth starter won't be very good, but the question remains, how will St. Louis fare without their ace? Will they flounder and miss the playoffs again, or maybe they can respond and win the Central, blow through the playoffs and win a championship...oh and then sign Albert Pujols to a long-term deal...

I think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. I still think the Cardinals are the favorites in the central division. The Cincinnati Reds will likely regress from last season, the Chicago Cubs will be better, but not enough better, and the Milwaukee Brewers will probably be in the mix as well, but fall short. Any one of those teams could win it though and I wouldn't be surprised, it is a tough division.

I expect the Cardinals to win about 89 games in the regular season. The top of their rotation has to remain healthy and each get about 30-35 starts and 200 innings. The hitting on this team will be good enough to carry a mediocre pitching staff into the playoffs...When a team has Pujols and Matt Holliday on their team, they are going to score plenty of runs...but the playoffs will be when the pitching needs to step up.

In a playoff series the Cardinals would like their chances when they start Carpenter and Garcia, but even if they win all their starts (a HUGE if)...one of the lesser pitchers would still need to get a win. It seems very unlikely for them to be able to push through a tough National League without their ace.

That being said, I will stick with my prediction because anything could happen. Had I waited a week and made my guess now, I would have chosen someone else to win it all, but I will stick to my guns and say that the St. Louis Cardinals are going to be World Champions in 2011.